How to use the map handicap calculator
- Set the team's single-map win chance.
- Choose Best of 3 or Best of 5.
You'll see the chance to win the series, to cover −1.5 maps and +1.5 maps, the most likely score, and every correct score with its probability. Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability.
Example: 60% map favourite, Bo3
| Score | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2–0 | 36.0% | 2.78 |
| 2–1 | 28.8% | 3.47 |
| 1–2 | 19.2% | 5.21 |
| 0–2 | 16.0% | 6.25 |
So −1.5 maps is 36% (fair 2.78) and +1.5 maps is 84% (fair 1.19).
Bo3 handicaps by map win chance
| Map win chance | 2–0 (−1.5 maps) | 2–1 | +1.5 maps (wins at least one map) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 75.0% |
| 55% | 30.3% | 27.2% | 79.8% |
| 60% | 36.0% | 28.8% | 84.0% |
| 65% | 42.3% | 29.6% | 87.8% |
| 70% | 49.0% | 29.4% | 91.0% |
| 80% | 64.0% | 25.6% | 96.0% |
Even a strong 70% map favourite sweeps 2–0 less than half the time.
Example: a 55% and a 70% map favourite in a Bo3
| Map win chance | Win series | Cover −1.5 maps (2–0) | Cover +1.5 maps | Fair odds −1.5 | Fair odds +1.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55% | 57.5% | 30.3% | 79.8% | 3.31 | 1.25 |
| 70% | 78.4% | 49.0% | 91.0% | 2.04 | 1.10 |
A team that is a 55% map favourite wins the series about 57% of the time, but takes it 2–0 only 30% of the time. If a sportsbook offers −1.5 maps at less than 3.31 on that team, the line is shorter than the model says it should be.
The −1.5 line is a bet that the favourite wins without dropping a map, so it suits teams that dominate on their own maps. Teams with a strong map pool but a weak map in the veto often drop one.
Related: series calculator · map handicaps and series betting · CS2 map pool and veto.
