Prediction Markets
Prediction market news & blog
25 articles, each with its publication date.
News19 Oct Novig Reports Download and Deposit Growth After Sydney Sweeney Campaign Big percentages from the company. They measure attention, not lasting customers. News19 Oct Underdog Challenges Tennessee Enforcement in Federal Court Another prediction market takes the federal versus state fight to court. A filing is not a ruling. News13 Oct Study for Tribal Gaming Puts Prediction Market Risk at Up to $39bn Big numbers, but they rest on big assumptions. Here's what the four scenarios actually say — and who paid for them. News10 Oct CFTC Proposes Defining Event Contracts as Swaps A few words in a definition could decide who gets to regulate prediction markets: Washington or the states. News10 Oct Kalshi Investigates Bets Placed Before Trump Named His New Press Secretary About $173 in bets at 1% odds, worth roughly $9,600, placed hours before the announcement. Blog · Politics9 Oct The 2026 Midterms: What the Prediction Markets Are Saying Democrats are heavy favourites for the House; the Senate is much closer. Here's how to read the numbers — and how not to. Blog · Entertainment9 Oct Can Prediction Markets Predict the Oscars? The Academy is a small, secretive electorate. That makes the Oscars both easier and harder to forecast than an election. Blog · Esports9 Oct Esports Event Contracts: A New Way to Back Your Team CS2 and League of Legends now trade millions of dollars a day on prediction markets. Here's how it works and what to watch. Blog · Video games9 Oct The Game Awards 2026: Game of the Year Odds and What Could Upset Them GTA VI is a runaway favourite — if it launches in time. A look at the GOTY market ahead of 10 December. Blog · Video games9 Oct GTA VI Release Date Markets: A Case Study in Pricing Delays Two delays, millions traded and a 19 November launch date. GTA VI is the perfect lesson in how markets price 'when'. Blog · Sports9 Oct The Kalshi Lawsuits Explained: Why States Are Fighting Prediction Markets Federal derivatives or unlicensed sports betting? Two dozen states, the CFTC and several appeals courts are fighting over the answer. Blog · Politics9 Oct Polymarket's Return to the US: From CFTC Fine to Regulated App A $1.4 million fine, an FBI raid, a $112 million acquisition and a six-month waitlist. Polymarket's road back to America. Blog · Entertainment9 Oct Weather, Box Office and Other Weird Prediction Markets Tomorrow's high in Chicago. A film's opening weekend. Whether a CEO says 'AI' on an earnings call. Yes, you can trade all of them. Blog · Politics9 Oct When Prediction Markets Got It Wrong Brexit, 2016 and a few other nights traders would rather forget. Were the markets wrong — or just unlucky? Blog · How it works9 Oct Wisdom of Crowds: Why Prediction Markets Work (and When They Don't) In 1906, 787 people guessed an ox's weight. Their middle guess was almost perfect. That idea powers every prediction market. News9 Oct Election Trading Tops $2 Billion as Midterms Approach The midterms are the biggest test yet for regulated election markets — and the money is pouring in. News8 Oct CFTC Reportedly Examines Unusual Trading on Kalshi Crypto Contracts Volume is the industry's favourite headline number. Regulators want to know how much of it is real. News8 Oct Where Sports Prediction Markets Stand: Blocked in Nevada and Michigan, Fought in a Dozen More Federal regulation, state resistance and a possible trip to the Supreme Court. Here's the map as of 8 October — a snapshot, not a final ruling. News7 Oct Traders Keep Chasing Longshots on Kalshi and Polymarket — and Losing The dream of turning 2¢ into a dollar is powerful. The data says it rarely comes true. News7 Oct Kalshi Files for a Never-Expiring Oil Contract With the CFTC The prediction market is pushing further into traditional derivatives — with a WTI-linked contract that has no expiry date. News6 Oct UK Regulator Confirms Talks With Prediction Market Firms Kalshi and Polymarket want to come to Britain. The FCA is listening — but has a binary-options problem. News2 Oct CFTC Probes Ex-Congressman Kinzinger Over Kalshi Pardon Bets The first publicly known federal inquiry into pardon markets raises a big question: when is betting on your own fate insider trading? News1 Oct Kalshi Nears $40 Billion Valuation as Polymarket Seeks Over $20 Billion If the reported rounds close, the two giants of prediction markets would be valued like major exchanges — before the legal fight over sports is settled. News13 Jun Kalshi, Polymarket and Crypto.com Sue Over Kentucky's 14.25% Prediction Market Tax The first state tax aimed at prediction markets is heading to court — with federal pre-emption at the centre again. News10 Jun CFTC Proposes New Rule for Prediction Market Contracts Months after scrapping a 2024 proposal, the federal regulator has a new plan for judging event contracts.
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