The UK's Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) has confirmed it is in discussions with prediction market companies about operating in Britain. FCA markets chief Simon Walls confirmed the talks on 6 October, according to the Financial Times, as reported by Yahoo Finance.[1]
The binary-options problem
There's a significant hurdle. The FCA's 2026 perimeter report said the financial prediction-market products it examined were, in its view, binary options — a product the UK has banned for retail customers since 2019 because of the losses they caused.[1] That means a US-style contract on, say, whether the S&P 500 closes higher this week would face the ban if offered to ordinary UK consumers.
Contracts on sports and other events are a different matter: in the UK they would normally fall under gambling rules and the Gambling Commission. Betting exchanges like Betfair have operated legally in the UK for decades. Prediction market firms have pushed back against being labelled gambling.
Why it matters
Kalshi and Polymarket are reportedly raising money at valuations of tens of billions of dollars and are looking for growth outside the US. The UK, with a mature betting market and a respected financial regulator, is an obvious target — and how the FCA handles them could set a template for other countries.
What it means for you
If you're in the UK today, US prediction markets aren't available, and the international Polymarket site isn't regulated by UK authorities. Our guide are prediction markets legal? covers the rules country by country.
Sources
- Polymarket, Kalshi coming to UK? FCA confirms talks as prediction markets push back on gambling label — Yahoo Finance, October 2026 ↩
