Can Prediction Markets Predict the Oscars?

Every year, millions of people fill in Oscar ballots for fun. Prediction markets let you put a price on those guesses — and the prices themselves are now quoted by entertainment journalists. But how good are they at forecasting the Academy?

How Oscar markets work

Kalshi, Polymarket and other platforms list contracts on each major category: Will Film X win Best Picture? Each contract pays $1 if it wins. Prices start moving after the autumn festivals (Venice, Telluride, Toronto), jump when nominations are announced in January, and swing again with the precursor awards — the Golden Globes, Critics Choice, and especially the guild awards (Producers, Directors, Actors).

Why the Oscars are forecastable

The Academy's roughly 10,000 voters overlap heavily with the guilds. When the Directors Guild and Screen Actors Guild awards line up behind a film or performer, the Oscar usually follows. Markets absorb these signals quickly, so by Oscar night many acting categories trade above 85–90% for the favourite — and those favourites usually win.

Why Best Picture is hard

Best Picture uses a preferential ballot: voters rank the nominees, and the film with the broadest support — not necessarily the most first-place votes — wins.^[1] A polarising film with passionate fans can lose to a consensus "second choice". This has produced famous surprises, and markets have been caught out more than once.

How accurate have markets been?

Research on prediction markets in general shows they aggregate information well when there's enough money and enough independent signals.^[2] For the Oscars, markets typically get most of the "big six" categories right in a normal year — similar to the best professional pundits, who rely on the same precursor results. Where they miss is where everyone misses: genuine upsets in close races, and Best Picture's ranked-ballot surprises.

Tips for trading Oscar markets

• Follow the guilds. The PGA (which also uses a preferential ballot) is a strong Best Picture signal.
• Beware of hype. Box-office success and social-media buzz don't vote.
• Mind liquidity. Major categories trade well; technical categories can be thin. See prediction market liquidity.
• Don't overpay for favourites. A 92¢ acting favourite gives you 8¢ upside and 92¢ downside — see implied probability.

The 2027 Academy Awards season is just starting, with festival hits jostling for position. Follow along on our entertainment prediction markets page — and remember that the most fun Oscar bet is still the one with your friends.