The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is investigating former Illinois congressman Adam Kinzinger over bets he placed on Kalshi that he would receive a presidential pardon from Joe Biden, CNN reported on 30 September.[1] It's the first publicly known federal inquiry into pardon markets on prediction sites.
What happened
Kinzinger, a Republican critic of President Trump who served on the House committee investigating the 6 January 2021 Capitol attack, received a preemptive pardon from Biden in January 2025. Reports say he had bet a few hundred dollars — around $669 in total — on Kalshi markets about whether he would be pardoned, and he shared screenshots in September showing a profit of about $823.[1]
Kinzinger says he did nothing illegal and has called the investigation "100%" politically motivated.[2]
The bigger issue: insider trading
Prediction markets are covered by the CFTC's rules against fraud and manipulation, and the major platforms ban trading on material non-public information — and trading on outcomes you can influence. In 2026, Kalshi and Polymarket both tightened their insider-trading policies under regulatory pressure.[3]
The Kinzinger case tests where the line is. Did he have inside knowledge of a pardon decision, or was he speculating like everyone else? The amounts are tiny, but the precedent could matter a lot for political markets.
What it means for you
For ordinary traders, nothing changes — but it's a reminder that regulated markets have rules, and someone is watching. Learn more in our guide to political prediction markets and are prediction markets legal?.
Sources
- Federal regulator probing Trump critic Adam Kinzinger for betting on his own pardon — CNN, 30 September 2026 ↩
- Kinzinger denies wrongdoing over Kalshi trade and says investigation is '100%' politically motivated — NPR Illinois, 2 October 2026 ↩
- Kalshi and Polymarket move to curb insider trading — Venable, April 2026 ↩
