For US sportsbooks, the most dangerous team at the 2026 World Cup wasn't Spain or Argentina — it was the United States. Home fans backed the USMNT heavily to win matches and the tournament, making them the books' biggest outright liability. Their elimination in the knockout rounds left sportsbooks in a "strong position" for the rest of the tournament.[1][2]
The liability
Caesars said the USA was "by far" its biggest outright liability, with Portugal second. One Circa Sports customer reportedly bet $750,000 on the US at −130 to advance; their defeat to Belgium was described as one of the book's biggest winners of the year in any sport.
Why home teams are risky for bookmakers
Sportsbooks aim to balance money on both sides. When one side attracts most of the action — as a home team in a home World Cup does — books can't fully balance it and end up exposed to that team's success. Patriotic money is rarely price-sensitive.
What it means for bettors
Betting on your own team is part of the fun, but the odds are often shorter than they'd be in a neutral market. Read about the favourite–longshot bias and sharp vs square to see how public money shapes prices.
Sources
- Sportsbooks the big winners after US World Cup defeat — CasinoBeats, 9 July 2026 ↩
- 2026 World Cup odds: books in 'strong position' following USA elimination — Fox Sports ↩
