How to use the CLV calculator
- Enter the odds you took, in any format.
- Enter the closing odds for the same side.
- Optionally enter the closing odds for the other side, so the margin can be removed.
- Enter your stake to see the edge in dollars.
You see:
- Odds CLV: how much better (or worse) your price was than the close,
- Chance moved: the change in implied probability, in percentage points,
- Fair closing chance: the market's chance for your side, without margin if you entered both sides,
- Estimated edge: your odds × the fair closing chance − 1, and what that means on your stake.
The maths
- Odds CLV = your decimal odds ÷ closing decimal odds − 1.
- Chance moved = 1 ÷ closing odds − 1 ÷ your odds.
- Fair closing chance = (1 ÷ closing odds) ÷ (1 ÷ closing odds + 1 ÷ other side's closing odds).
- Edge = your odds × fair closing chance − 1.
Example
You bet 2.10 (+110). By kickoff the market closes at 1.95 on your side and 1.95 on the other.
- Odds CLV: 2.10 ÷ 1.95 − 1 = +7.69%.
- Implied chance moved from 47.6% to 51.3%: +3.7 points.
- With the margin removed, the fair closing chance is 50.0%, so the estimated edge is 2.10 × 0.50 − 1 = +5.00%, or +$5.00 on a $100 stake.
If you leave out the other side, the closing chance includes the bookmaker's margin (51.3%), so the edge shows as +7.69%, which is the same as the odds CLV and slightly too high. Enter both sides for a cleaner number.
How to use CLV
- Keep a log. Write down the odds, the time and the closing odds for every bet.
- Use a sharp reference. Closing lines from low-margin books and exchanges are the best yardstick.
- Look at the average. A positive average CLV over a large sample is the signal. One bet is not.
Check whether a price is good before betting with value betting and the no-vig calculator, and size stakes with the Kelly calculator. Read bankroll management for staking basics.
